U-M forecast projects no job growth until 2011

Michigan’s already battered economy will continue to shed jobs for the next two years before finally hitting bottom and beginning tepid job growth, according to an annual economic forecast released today by the University of Michigan.

The unemployment rate will peak in 2010 at 15.8 percent and then improve at an excruciatingly slow pace, falling to 15.1 percent by the end of 2011, the forecast from the U-M Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics said. In October, the rate stood at 15.1 percent.

And the job growth at the end of 2011 won’t be enough to make 2011 a good year overall. Economists project total job losses of 36,000 for the year. On the bright side, that is a huge improvement from the 283,000 projected job losses in Michigan for 2009 – the worst calendar year in 70 years.

Still, U-M economists said there are positives to take within the grim numbers.

"We are nearly done with one of the worst economic years in our modern history, maybe the worst,” said U-M economist George Fulton in a statement. “The progress that’s being made, however, does reflect improvements in fundamentals."

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Source: Gongwer 11/19/2009